TRG | The Bottom Line – 7/17

This week, we wrapped up our Q2 survey season, completing another round of conversations across the building products industry. Our discussions reinforced our view that single-family housing demand remains subdued in 2026. As a starting point, the 30-year mortgage rate remains above 6%, while home prices are still elevated, making affordability difficult across the board. Single-family permits have also remained stuck at low levels and have been fairly weak for the past 14 months. Existing home sales have remained in the zone of 4 million since November 2022, compared with a 2013–2021 average of 5.4 million. We view this as a continued pressure point for repair and remodel activity. Stay-in-place R&R is also facing pressure from low consumer confidence, high gas prices, and the cumulative impact of inflation over the past few years, all of which make big-ticket R&R spending more difficult. All combined, the conditions for greater demand just are not present in our view and we don’t see that changing in a major way in 2H.

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