TRG | The Bottom Line – 9/26

TRG held a fireside chat this week with Kodiak Building Partners (KBP) and Kodiak Interiors Group (KIG). The Colorado-based company operates a network of businesses coast to coast providing wallboard, kitchen supplies, lumber and more. Much of our conversation focused on the housing outlook. Despite a 3-year single-family housing recession, our guests anticipate another flat year in 2026, suggesting only “meaningful” interest rate cuts could ignite upside to the single-family market. In addition to affordability, regulation is also seen as a major stumbling block to meeting increasing demand. On the positive side, and somewhat contrarian, is that Kodiak is seeing strong demand in multifamily construction. Tariffs, outside of a short period of uncertainty in the market, have not proven problematic.  In fact, Kodiak is still able to pass along price appreciation and is seeing no product availability issues. Finally, our guests anticipate no slowdown in the pace of acquisitions, in fact, sharing the recent activity from Home Depot, Lowes, and QXO will only accelerate the next phase of consolidation.